Stonecrest, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

729
FXUS62 KFFC 031625
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1125 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

The forecast is on track, and no changes are planned. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

500mb analysis shows a broad longwave trough just off the east
coast. The main shortwave energy in the base of the trough is moving
east across the Middle Atlantic States. Earlier regional radar showed
some very light returns across northern portions of the state
indicating some flurries, but those returns have diminished.

At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is across central GA. The
boundary should continue pushing southward as strong high pressure
builds in from the NW. A dry and colder airmass will settle across
the CWA through the remainder of the short term. Temperatures today
and tonight will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Some moderation is expected for Wednesday. Will have to
monitor the southward progression of the stratus shield over TN.
Models may not have a great handle on what is occurring.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

The long term period picks up on Wednesday night with another
shortwave/disturbance pivoting around the base of the persistent
larger-scale trough anchored over east-central Canada. Isolated to
scattered rain is likely as moisture increases courtesy of return
flow from the Gulf of Mexico. A period of overnight temperatures in
the lower 30s is expected across the higher elevations (~2000 ft and
above) of far north Georgia, so a wintry mix cannot be ruled out. No
accumulation of wintry precip is expected, and rainfall totals will
be scarce (less than 0.1 inch).

The shortwave and its associated cold front will bring another shot
of cold air to north and central Georgia Thursday night into Friday.
Morning lows will generally be in the teens to 20s and afternoon
highs will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s (with highs in the 30s in
the mountains). Both Friday and Saturday are progged to be dry,
although there is a non-zero chance for isolated rain on Saturday,
should the GEFS be correct in faster arrival of moisture ahead of a
weak mid-level disturbance currently progged to dive south-
southeastward from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes. Have slight
chance (20% or lower) PoPs Saturday night into Sunday morning, which
is more aligned with the timing of increasing moisture per the EPS
and GEPS. Again, low temperatures in the lower 30s could mean the
possibility of a wintry mix across portions of far north Georgia
above 2000 ft.

A pattern change is on tap for Sunday and Monday. The global
ensembles depict a mid-/upper-level shortwave trough tracking
eastward from the Desert Southwest and perhaps merging with the
larger-scale trough that is progged to encompass much of the western
and central CONUS. Moisture advection in response to this larger-
scale forcing/ascent may support isolated rain as early as Sunday
morning/afternoon, with increasing PoPs indicated by the NBM
(National Blend of Models) Sunday night through Monday night as
forcing/ascent increases with the eastward shift of the trough and
continued moisture advection. This synoptic setup could bring
beneficial rainfall to much of the forecast area, with the current
forecast package calling for anywhere from 0.25 inch to 1.25 inches
across much of the forecast area, and as much as 2.50 inches in the
mountains thanks to orographic lift. That said, these rainfall totals
are subject to change with subsequent forecast packages, as the
moisture axis may shift.

A warming trend will increase temperatures enough such that
overnight/early Monday morning lows will be well above freezing for
the vast majority of the forecast area. High temperatures are progged
to be in the 60s along and south of I-20 on Monday, with 50s
elsewhere for the most part.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A brief period of morning MVFR cigs possible, otherwise VFR. Winds
will remain on the west side. Some low end gusts to around 20kt
possible through late afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  22  53  38 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         43  25  52  41 /   0   0   0  40
Blairsville     38  19  49  33 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    42  20  53  38 /   0   0  10  40
Columbus        49  26  56  40 /   0   0   0  40
Gainesville     44  24  51  39 /   0   0   0  30
Macon           49  23  55  38 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            42  20  53  37 /   0   0  10  40
Peachtree City  44  20  54  38 /   0   0   0  40
Vidalia         50  26  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...NListemaa